{"id":4886,"date":"2026-01-27T09:43:20","date_gmt":"2026-01-27T09:43:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uapcoalitienederland.nl\/?page_id=4886"},"modified":"2026-11-08T19:11:14","modified_gmt":"2026-11-08T19:11:14","slug":"anomaly-severity-index-uap-validation","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/uapcoalitienederland.nl\/en\/anomaly-severity-index-uap-validatie\/","title":{"rendered":"The Anomaly Severity Index (ASI): A Probabilistic Model for UAP Validation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"4886\" class=\"elementor elementor-4886\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-770bea3a e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"770bea3a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4c6db9f7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4c6db9f7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The Anomaly Severity Index (ASI): A Probabilistic Model for UAP Validation<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-41663fc1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"41663fc1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p data-path-to-node=\"4\"><b data-path-to-node=\"4\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">In contemporary aviation safety analysis, a binary classification, where incidents are simply labeled as &quot;identified&quot; or &quot;unexplained,&quot; is inadequate. The complexity of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) requires a method that can quantify degrees of uncertainty. A possible solution is the Anomaly Severity Index (ASI). This method offers this framework: a probabilistic model that transforms uncertainty from a defect into a measurable variable.<\/b><\/p><p data-path-to-node=\"5\">By implementing the ASI, data analysts can objectively assess the robustness of evidence ranging from brief visual contacts to high-quality, multi-sensory data streams within European airspace.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-68889f15 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"68889f15\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The Bayesian Approach: Probability in Context<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9bee263 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9bee263\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p data-path-to-node=\"7\">The core of the ASI rests on <a href=\"https:\/\/nl.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Bayesiaanse_statistiek\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b data-path-to-node=\"7\" data-index-in-node=\"27\">Bayesian inference<\/b><\/a>. This tests the probability of an anomalous report against the &quot;background noise&quot; of conventional air traffic and natural phenomena. Instead of looking for an absolute truth, this model calculates a <i data-path-to-node=\"7\" data-index-in-node=\"279\">joint Gaussian likelihood<\/i> for variables such as altitude change, maneuver duration and speed.<\/p><p data-path-to-node=\"8\">When a pilot observes an object, human visual acuity (typically <span class=\"math-inline\" data-math=\"1\/60^{\\circ}\" data-index-in-node=\"89\">1\/60 degrees<\/span>) modeled as a <i data-path-to-node=\"8\" data-index-in-node=\"124\">truncated Gaussian distribution<\/i>. This allows one to mathematically combine the observation with sensor data. Environmental factors, such as an angular size of <span class=\"math-inline\" data-math=\"&gt;0,15^{\\circ}\" data-index-in-node=\"282\">&gt;0.15 degrees<\/span>\u00a0and light quality, serve as critical weighting factors that determine the initial confidence score before instrumental data is added.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-23e646b4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"23e646b4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The Five Dimensions of the ASI<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2cb82141 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2cb82141\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p data-path-to-node=\"10\">The ASI is composed of five technical dimensions that together determine the severity of an anomaly:<\/p><h3 data-path-to-node=\"11\">Sensor quality and coupling<\/h3><p data-path-to-node=\"12\">The highest validation requires coincidence between at least two independent sensor types (e.g., radar and FLIR\/infrared). We aim for a statistical threshold of <b data-path-to-node=\"12\" data-index-in-node=\"176\">5-sigma<\/b> against the null hypothesis (instrumental noise or cosmic rays) before a report is considered definitively anomalous.<\/p><h3 data-path-to-node=\"13\">Kinematic Deviation<\/h3><p data-path-to-node=\"14\">This measures the deviation from known aerodynamic laws. High scores are awarded for:<\/p><ul data-path-to-node=\"15\"><li><p data-path-to-node=\"15,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"15,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Gears:<\/b> Ranging from <span class=\"math-inline\" data-math=\"75g\" data-index-in-node=\"29\">75g<\/span> to <span class=\"math-inline\" data-math=\"&gt;5000g\" data-index-in-node=\"37\">&gt;5000g<\/span>\u00a0(well above mechanical limits).<\/p><\/li><li><p data-path-to-node=\"15,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"15,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Speeds:<\/b> Above Mach 1 without the associated <i data-path-to-node=\"15,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"48\">sonic boom<\/i> or heat emission.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><h3 data-path-to-node=\"16\">Contextual Exclusion<\/h3><p data-path-to-node=\"17\">A score only becomes significant when it has been proven that conventional objects have been excluded using databases such as FlightRadar24 (air traffic), N2YO (satellites), SondeHub (weather balloons) and Stellarium (astronomical objects).<\/p><h3 data-path-to-node=\"18\">Human Observation Integrity<\/h3><p data-path-to-node=\"19\">Although pilots are trained observers, the ASI weighs their expertise probabilistically. Factors such as flight hours and the ability to make prosaic statements <i data-path-to-node=\"19\" data-index-in-node=\"154\">a priori<\/i> to eliminate will enhance the score, provided it is consistent with the instrumental limits of the human eye.<\/p><h3 data-path-to-node=\"20\">Duration and Consistency<\/h3><p data-path-to-node=\"21\">The duration is crucial for error elimination. Reports shorter than 10 seconds receive the lowest score; observations longer than 10 seconds significantly increase the ASI score.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-61dfbf1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"61dfbf1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Tier Classification: From Data to Policy<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-51c876f7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"51c876f7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p data-path-to-node=\"23\">The ASI translates complex data into five Tiers:<\/p><ul data-path-to-node=\"24\"><li><p data-path-to-node=\"24,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"24,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Tier 0:<\/b> Event fully explained.<\/p><\/li><li><p data-path-to-node=\"24,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"24,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Tier 1-2:<\/b> Reports with limited data or short duration; large margin of uncertainty.<\/p><\/li><li><p data-path-to-node=\"24,2,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"24,2,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Tier 3:<\/b> Significant anomalies with reliable sensor data that challenge conventional explanations.<\/p><\/li><li><p data-path-to-node=\"24,3,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"24,3,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Tier 4 (The Gold Standard):<\/b> Long-term observations by multiple independent sensors, supported by physical evidence and peer review, form the basis for international data sharing within the EU.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fd1ad18 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"fd1ad18\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Conclusion: A Model for the European Research Area<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7161d0e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7161d0e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The implementation of the ASI within European airspace management may provide a methodological framework that strengthens flight safety without damaging the reputation of professionals. By treating reports as quantifiable safety insights within a <b data-path-to-node=\"27\" data-index-in-node=\"260\">Just Culture<\/b>, The European Research Area (ERA) can replace stigma with strict scientific protocols. This is important for both national security and the integrity of academic science.<\/p><p><em>In depth: Read more about our standards and scientific principles in the dossier <a href=\"https:\/\/uapcoalitienederland.nl\/en\/scientific-uap-research-strategy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scientific Research UAP<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b86521c elementor-widget elementor-widget-html\" data-id=\"b86521c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"uapkc uapkc-related\">\r\n  <h2>Read more<\/h2>\r\n  <div class=\"uapkc-grid uapkc-cols-r\">\r\n    <a class=\"uapkc-card\" href=\"https:\/\/uapcoalitienederland.nl\/en\/uap-validation-method-science\/\">\r\n      <h3>Systematic UAP validation<\/h3>\r\n      <p>The five phases in which a report is filtered, from sensor data to excluding satellites such as Starlink.<\/p>\r\n    <\/a>\r\n    <a class=\"uapkc-card\" href=\"https:\/\/uapcoalitienederland.nl\/en\/anomalous-kinematics-physics-uap\/\">\r\n      <h3>Anomalous kinematics<\/h3>\r\n      <p>Extreme accelerations, the absence of a hypersonic signature, and displacement between air, space, and water.<\/p>\r\n    <\/a>\r\n    <a class=\"uapkc-card\" href=\"https:\/\/uapcoalitienederland.nl\/en\/sensordata-uap-radar-flir\/\">\r\n      <h3>Sensor data: radar, ADS-B and FLIR<\/h3>\r\n      <p>How radar, transponder data, and infrared together substantiate or explain an observation.<\/p>\r\n    <\/a>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  <p class=\"uapkc-back\"><a href=\"https:\/\/uapcoalitienederland.nl\/en\/knowledge-center\/\">All articles in the Knowledge Center<\/a><\/p>\r\n<\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-241850ee e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"241850ee\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5925e036 elementor-widget elementor-widget-global elementor-global-4734 elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"5925e036\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/uapcoalitienederland.nl\/en\/contact-uap-reporting\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Contact<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-340b1b34 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"340b1b34\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>De Anomaly Severity Index (ASI): Een Probabilistisch Model voor UAP-Validatie In de hedendaagse luchtvaartveiligheidsanalyse is een binaire classificatie, waarbij incidenten simpelweg als &#8220;ge\u00efdentificeerd&#8221; of &#8220;onverklaard&#8221; worden bestempeld, ontoereikend. De complexiteit van Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) vereist een methode die gradaties van onzekerheid kan kwantificeren. Een mogelijke oplossing is de Anomaly Severity Index (ASI). Deze methode [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"no-sidebar","site-content-layout":"page-builder","ast-site-content-layout":"full-width-container","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"disabled","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-4886","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.7 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Anomaly Severity Index (ASI): Wetenschappelijke UAP Validatie<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"De Anomaly Severity Index (ASI) vertaalt UAP-meldingen naar meetbare data. 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